Title: Boltzmann-Arrhenius-Zhurkov (BAZ) Equation and Its Application In Electronics-and-Photonics (EP) Reliability-Physics (RP) Problems: Review and Extension

Biography:

Ephraim Suhir is on the faculty of the Portland State University, Portland, OR, USA, Technical University, Vienna, Austria and James Cook University, Queensland, Australia. He is also CEO of a Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) ERS Co. in Los Altos, CA, USA,  is Foreign Full Member (Academician) of the National Academy of Engineering, Ukraine (he was born in that country); Life Fellow of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME), the Society of Optical Engineers (SPIE), and the International Microelectronics and Packaging Society  (IMAPS);  Fellow of the American Physical Society (APS), the Institute of Physics (IoP), UK, and the Society of Plastics Engineers (SPE); and Associate Fellow of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA). Ephraim has authored 400+ publications (patents, technical papers, book chapters, books), presented numerous keynote and invited talks worldwide, and received many professional awards, including 1996 Bell Laboratories Distinguished Member of Technical Staff (DMTS) Award (for developing effective methods for predicting the reliability of complex structures used in AT&T and Lucent Technologies products), and 2004 ASME Worcester Read Warner Medal (for outstanding contributions to the permanent literature of engineering and laying the foundation of a new discipline “Structural Analysis of Electronic Systems”). Ephraim is the third “Russian American”, after S. Timoshenko and I. Sikorsky, who received this prestigious award. This year he received the 2019 IEEE Electronic Packaging Society (EPS) Field award for seminal contributions to mechanical reliability engineering and modeling of electronic and photonic packages and systems and IntMicroelectronic Packaging Society’s (IMAPS) Lifetime Achievement award for making exceptional, visible, and sustained impact on the microelectronics packaging industry and technology.

Abstract

Application of Boltzmann-Arrhenius-Zhurkov (BAZ) equation in electronics-and-photonics (EP) reliability-physics (RP) problems enables quantifying, on the probabilistic basis, the performance (actually, the never-zero probability of failure under the anticipated loading conditions and after the given time in operation)  of an EP material, thereby  making a viable device into a reliable product, with the predicted, adequate and, when necessary and appropriate, even specified probability of failure in the field. In the review part of the analysis the following EP RP problems are addressed with an objective to show the significance and attributes of the approach based on the BAZ equation: 1) an EP package subjected to the combined action of two or more stressors (such as, say, elevated humidity and voltage); 2) three-step concept (TSC) in modeling reliability, when the RP-based BAZ equation is sandwiched between two well-known statistical models - Bayes formula (BF) and beta-distribution (BD); 3) static fatigue of an optical silica fiber intended for high-temperature applications; 4) low-cycle fatigue life-time of solder joint interconnections and 5) life-time of electron devices predicted from the yield information. The extension part addresses some important aspects of burn-in testing (BIT) of manufactured EP products comprised of many mass-produced components. Its objective is to shed, using BAZ equation, some quantitative light on the RP of the BIT process. The general concepts and analyses in both parts of the analysis are illustrated by and through practical numerical examples. It is concluded that application of BAZ equation in EP RP problems, and particularly in those encountered in aerospace engineering, enables quantifying, on the probabilistic basis, the performance (actually, the probability of failure under the anticipated loading conditions and after the given operation time) and the lifetime of an electronic or a photonic material. This makes a viable device into a reliable product, with the predicted, adequate and, when necessary and appropriate, even specified never-zero probability of failure in the field.